Rainfall Data Component

Hi @AbrahamYezioro - thanks for the kind words. :smiley:

I can’t actually comment on what the ‘best’ future scenario generator is as I don’t have experience on these. It’s probably not a very satisfying answer but I would only say that it would depend on your usage, as I like to quote - “all models are wrong, but some are useful”.

In general, I understand the idea is that the changing climate will have effects of shifting and flattening the distribution of some parameters. We can see this from historical data as shown below:

I understand these generators use CMIP models to estimate the magnitude of ‘shift’ and ‘flattening’ that they can apply to the present weather data and I think that’s more or less reasonable way to do it. One recommendation that I made in the past was to make sure an up-to-date EPW file is used, as some older TMY3 files include data from 1960s and 1970s, to avoid ‘garbage-in garbage-out’ type of situation.

Another part of these is that this type ‘shift’ is not suitable for predicting extreme weather situations that we’re starting to see - the floods & wild fires for instance, although I would imagine them to be less relevant for the building energy simulation community.

Just my two cents.